Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests

Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests

Endogenous variables in structural models of agricultural commodity markets are typically treated as stationary. Yet, tests for unit roots have rather frequently implied that commodity prices are not stationary. This seeming inconsistency is investigated by focusing on alternative specifications of unit root tests. We apply various specifications to Illinois farm prices of corn, soybeans, barro...

Bootstrap Unit Root Tests

We consider the bootstrap unit root tests based on finite order autoregressive integrated models driven by iid innovations, with or without deterministic time trends. A general methodology is developed to approximate asymptotic distributions for the models driven by integrated time series, and used to obtain asymptotic expansions for the Dickey–Fuller unit root tests. The second-order terms in ...

Differencing and Unit Root Tests

e d In the Box-Jenkins approach to analyzing time series, a key question is whether to difference th ata, i.e., to replace the raw data {y } by the differenced series {y −y }. Experience indicates that m t t t −1 ost economic time series tend to wander and are not stationary, but that differencing often yields a e r stationary result. A key example, which often provides a fairly good descriptio...

Unit Root and Cointegration Tests

Differencing and Unit Root Tests

e d In the Box-Jenkins approach to analyzing time series, a key question is whether to difference th ata, i.e., to replace the raw data {x } by the differenced series {x −x }. Experience indicates that m t t t −1 ost economic time series tend to wander and are not stationary, but that differencing often yields a e r stationary result. A key example, which often provides a fairly good descriptio...